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The Fed’s Liabilities under QT: November Update

Total liabilities dropped by $344 billion since QT began. Big shifts between liabilities: reserves already plunged by $1.12 trillion. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. We generally discuss the Fed’s assets on its balance sheet: Treasury securities, MBS, repos, etc. But today, we’re going to look at the four major liabilities on the Fed’s balance sheet. On every balance sheet, total assets = total liabilities + capital (the Fed’s capital is limited by Congress, currently $42 billion). Total liabilities dropped to $8.58 trillion, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet released a day later than normal, on Friday, due to Thanksgiving. This was…

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Consumer Bankruptcies, Foreclosures, Delinquencies, and Collections: Free Money Still Doing the Job

Powell said many times consumers can take tightening because loan distress is at historic lows. What consumers cannot take for long is raging inflation. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. We’ll start with consumer bankruptcies because that’s where credit troubles, if they cannot be resolved, often end up. Then we’ll look at foreclosures, third-party collections, and delinquencies. What emerges is the picture of a consumer, still flush with pandemic money and rising incomes. Consumer bankruptcies had plunged when the free money arrived, including the PPP loans, along with the various forbearance programs and the eviction bans. And the number of consumers with bankruptcies…

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As The Fed Tightens To Fight Inflation, The US Banking System Growth Grinds To A Halt

The US has an inflation problem. Both headline and core inflation YoY remain high compared to the previous 40 years. And The Federal Reserve is resolute in trying to curb inflation to 2%. But as The Fed counterattacks inflation by raising their target rate, we are seeing a problem forming at the nation’s commercial banks. The growth in deposits YoY is now -0.6%. Commercial bank holdings of Treasuries and Agency MBS are declining as well. Agency MBS holdings are down -4.6% YoY and Treasuries and Agency holdings are down 0.0%. How about M2 Money growth and M2 velocity? M2 Money…

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Rent Crisis! 41% in U.S. Couldn’t Pay Rent November (Bank MBS Holdings Collapse With Fed Tightening)

Interesting story on Alignable. Due to high inflation, reduced consumer spending, higher rents and other economic pressures, U.S.-based small business owners’ rent problems just escalated to new heights nationally this month, based on Alignable’s November Rent Poll of 6,326 small business owners taken from 11/19/22 to 11/22/22. Unfortunately, 41% of U.S.-based small business owners report that they could not pay their rent in full and on time in November, a new record for 2022. Making matters worse, this occurred during a quarter when more money should be coming in and rent delinquency rates should be decreasing. But so far this…

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US Mortgage Rate Declines To 6.77% As European Yields Increase, Fed Starts Digital Dollar Experiment

Despite The Federal Reserve removing some of the monetary punch bowl, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate declined to 6.77% yesterday. Catch a rising yield and put it your pocket. European sovereign yield are up over 10 basis points today. On this side of the pond, The Federal Reserve has begun their experiment with big banks using digital currency. This is a step towards going to a cashless economy. Why is this terrifying? Blockchain technology is a fantastic innovation for processing payments given its ledger capabiliities. But that means that The Federal Reserve might be able to look at your complete history…

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US Bank Deposit Flight Not A Sign Of Higher Rates To Come

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,Bank deposits at US commercial banks are starting to decline. This is an early warning sign of a weakening US economy – not of higher spending and rising inflation – and so does not necessitate tighter Fed policy than is currently priced.Total deposits at US banks swelled almost $5 trillion through the pandemic to peak at over $18 trillion, taking the bank loan-to-deposit level to the lowest in at least 50-years at under 60%. Deposits -- driven by the checkable deposits of households -- rose, primarily as stimulus checks were paid into people’s accounts while…

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Gold at More Than One-Week High as Dollar Slips

By Brijesh Patel(Reuters) - Gold prices rose to more than one-week high on Monday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech later this week that could give clues on the monetary policy outlook.Spot gold was flat at $1,755.38 per ounce, as of 1258 GMT, after hitting its highest since Nov. 18 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% higher to $1,755 per ounce."The dollar turning a touch lower is helping gold prices now," independent analyst Ross Norman said, adding if protests in China against strict COVID curbs escalate quickly,…

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Mark Mobius Sees Bitcoin Down at $10,000 in ‘Dangerous’ Crypto Market

(Bloomberg) -- The crypto rout has room to run, according to veteran fund manager Mark Mobius.Most Read from BloombergThe co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners LLP said in an interview Monday in Singapore that his next target for Bitcoin is $10,000. He added he wouldn’t invest his own cash or client money in digital assets as “it’s too dangerous.”“But crypto is here to stay as there are several investors who still have faith in it,” said Mobius, who spent more than three decades at Franklin Templeton Investments. “It’s amazing how Bitcoin prices have held up” despite the FTX fallout, he added.The…

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Another Reason a Quick End to the Fed’s Rate Hikes Looks Unlikely

Although growth of the U.S. money supply is slowing, employment trends are strong, lots of cash is left over from the pandemic stimulus, and using credit cards is easy. That has put many people in a buying mood, inflation or no inflation.Continue reading

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