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Commercial Real Estate Crash Still Looming Over Us Economy

The threat of a commercial real estate market crash is hanging over the already fragile U.S. economy.About $1.5 trillion in commercial mortgage debt is due by the end of 2025, but steeper borrowing costs, coupled with tighter credit conditions and a decline in property values brought on by remote work, have increased the risk of default.Fitch Ratings already estimated that 35% — or $5.8 billion — of pooled securities commercial mortgages coming due between April and December 2023 will not be able to be refinanced."Commercial real estate is melting down fast," Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in a recent tweet.…

US Debt Clock Has a Roll Forward Function. At Current Rates in 2027 (4 Years) Here’s the US Fed Debt

US Debt Clock has a roll forward function. At current rates in 2027 (4 years) here is the US Federal Debt balance. h/t @jimmyvs24Look at that interest figure. WowGeorge Gammon just did a pretty good video last night about this. I don’t think he’s off base with his predictionTyDebt to gdp ratio150😱It’s going to much higher when tax receipts crater when this depression sets inYes. I agree. 10% higher. Because consumer debt will also increase more due to inflation4 years of bliss with no black swans accounted for as per CBO projection.WAIT? But Biden and McCarthy told us they cut…

The Great Global Debt Pit

14 mins. to read The ‘American Dream’ – Financed By Debt Phew! The USA managed to not go bankrupt on Monday (5 June). But it was a close-run thing. At the last minute, President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy sealed a deal which permitted Congress to raise the federal debt ceiling, in return for promised spending cuts. If the debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion had not been raised then, technically, the US Treasury would not have been able to redeem maturing T-bonds and bills, and the largest economy in the world would have gone into default.…

Rising Excess Liquidity Resolves Risk Asset-Recession Paradox

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,The seeming paradox between an increasingly recessionary economy and a resilient stock market can be explained by rising excess liquidity.Jobless claims data on Thursday continued to point in a recessionary direction. Yet, as always with this data, more information is gleaned by looking at it on a state level.On that basis, claims data continues to worsen. Recessions are pervasive deteriorations in activity at a sectoral and geographical level. When a rising number of states sees claims rising at a high rate, it is often a sign a recession is very close.The percentage of states…

Global Steel Production in 2022 Fell Most since 2009

China still produced more than the rest of the world combined, 12 times more than the US. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Global production of crude steel – ingots, semi-finished products (billets, blooms, slabs), and liquid steel for castings – fell by 3.9% to 1,885 million tonnes (Mt) in 2022, the first annual decline since 2015, the steepest decline since 2009, and the second-steeped decline going back to 1996, according to data from the World Steel Association. This brought production back to where it had been in 2020, thereby unwinding the stimulus-fueled jump in 2021. Production in China, which produces over half…

CMBS Storm Unfolds As Delinquent Office Loans Hit Five-Year High

Biden and The Fed are playing their own version of Johnny Horton’s “Sink The Bismarck!” This version is called “Sink The Economy!” The commercial real estate space is experiencing stress following the recent turmoil in the regional bank sector, with the rapid rise in interest rates, tightening lending standards, and structural changes, such as sliding demand for office buildings.  Some structural factors, such as remote work and hybrid work, have doomed the office space segment. This has left empty office buildings scattered across major US cities as the number of landlords falling behind on repayments due to the difficulty of…

Fuel-switching in Europe continues as natural gas prices step down

Highlights Limited scope for further switching even with further falls in gas prices German net power imports to remain high at an average 8 GW in Q3 Coal stocks at ARA terminals the highest since September 2022 Fuel-switching by European power generators has continued in recent weeks with lower natural gas prices, although the potential for a further decline in coal-fired generation is now very limited, analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed June 9. Not registered? Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience. Register Now Despite some recent gains on the key European trading hubs, overall…

Gold Bound for Weekly Gain on Fed Rate Pause Bets

By Seher Dareen2 Min Read(Reuters) - Gold eased on Friday on a stronger dollar, but held close to the previous session’s highs en route to a weekly gain helped by bets that the Federal Reserve could soon pause interest rate hikes.FILE PHOTO: Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,962.34 per ounce by 5:52 a.m. ET (0952 GMT), but headed for a 0.8% weekly climb, having jumped about 1.5% after a surge in U.S.…

The Entire Euro System Faces Failure

In these dogdays of summer, there is a new complacency over the financial and economic status of the Eurozone. Inflation is down, bank shares have rallied, and the end of further rises in interest rates is in sight. The lull in bad news conceals a deteriorating situation. In common with other markets, Eurozone bond yields are rising, and banks are now visibly trying to reduce their excessive balance sheet leverage. This is bound to lead to credit shortages in the coming months, maintaining or even driving interest rates higher. Contracting credit could lead to funding dislocations for highly indebted Eurozone…

3 Reasons Why Countries Devalue Their Currency

Currency devaluation is an economic policy by a country's government to weaken the value of its currency. Ever since world currencies abandoned the gold standard and allowed their exchange rates to float freely against each other, there have been many currency devaluation events that have hurt not only the citizens of the country involved but have also rippled across the globe. If the fallout can be so widespread, why do countries devalue their currency? In short, countries do it to boost exports, shrink trade deficits, and reduce sovereign debt burdens. Below we take a closer look at currency devaluation and the…

Argentina Unveils New 2,000-Peso Bill as Inflation Bites

Alejandro Rebossio3 hours ago3 hours agoThe new note, which will be worth $11 or €10.2 officially, comes after consumer prices jumped by nearly 95% in the 12 months to the end of December. It marks Argentina's fastest pace of inflation since 1991.

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